Egg on Face – I got it wrong!

Okay, we woz robbed. That Chris Heaton-Harris scraped through by the skin of his teeth winning the seat for Daventry, fouling the other candidates at every opportunity……..

No he didn’t, he romped home taking not just half the vote but raising it to 57% pushing Labour into third place and Liberal Democrats moving up into second. The only fouling was by running a very effective and efficient campaign leaving nothing to chance; despite only the smallest margin, he could lose this one hundred year old Conservative safe-seat.

In fairness, we didn’t say Chris would lose the election but there was a real fear that with the rise in the Liberal stock, then this could have seriously eroded the Conservative margin. I raised the fact there was a remote possibility we could elect someone who had not seemed a serious contender only a few weeks ago and denying us the experience of an A-list conservative candidate.

Even my other half did not buy this logic. I debated the issues how unhealthy I thought it was for Daventry to have Conservatives running both the Local Council and at Westminster with such strong majorities. I showed her my article in idaventry and then foolishly, in what I realize now was a desperate move, took hold of her index finger and bent it back to make her agree. Only resulting in her knee locking and with a karate style kick I only just averted a serious injury to a very private part of my anatomy, ending the discussion.

So, Chris Heaton-Harris – welcome to you as Daventry Constituency’s newest MP. The sixth in a line stretching back to Daventry’s first Conservative MP Edward FitzRoy who died on the job after serving for 25 years. He was Speaker in the House of Commons and to date the longest serving MP we have had. The Daventry constituency abolished for some reason in 1950 and later on reinstated in 1974 has had four more MPs, Reginald Manningham-Buller, Arthur Jones, Reg Prentice, (who crossed the floor from Labour to Conservative) and most recently Tim Boswell winning the seat in 1987. Only another couple of years and Tim would have beaten Edward FitzRoy in time served.

I have never met Tim Boswell and can only judge from his record how successful he has been. Member of a local farming family he was perhaps an ideal choice for a large rural constituency like Daventry in the Thatcher era. If you were a visitor from 1790 accidentally caught in a time-shift vortex landing on Tim Boswell’s farm near Banbury, you would not immediately suspect you had arrived in a different time zone. Welcomed by Tim, learning he is a farmer and MP, it would all make complete sense to this 18^th century person. Local Squire, MP, surely all quite normal our visitor from the past would muse.

His record in Parliament and even during the great expenses scandal of 2009 left our MP unscathed. Voting record, attendance, all not bad at Westminster, claims for expenses modest compared to many other MPs from all persuasions. During his last year at Westminster he did perform below average but then he was leaving.

Having spoken in only eight debates in the past 12 months, he voted in 65% of votes. Strongly against the hunting ban, not hugely in favour of Labour’s anti-terrorism laws, and in favour of the Iraq war whilst also in favour of an enquiry into the reason for the war.

He has a keen interest in the environment and in favour of reducing carbon emissions cleaning up the environment. Many constituents writing to Tim will have been pleasantly surprised at receiving thoughtful and considered replies in a perfectly reasonable time scale. I have seen one letter sent to a colleague addressing his concerns related to renewable energy. Tim’s response was intelligent and proactive linking him to a very senior peer of the realm.

On the expenses topic, I was amused to see Tim declared presents that included a £5 bottle of wine and a couple of tickets for Silverstone Grand Prix. An honest man who carried out his duties in the way he saw fit. Things have changed since 1987 and perhaps this is the perfect time to step down handing the baton over to someone new. Therefore, over to you Chris Heaton-Harris, our best wishes and the best of luck for all our sakes.

By David Raven Editor of idaventry.com

Be careful who you vote for…it may come true!

Dave Raven, idaventry editor struggles with who to vote for..

After just three appearances on the box by party leaders, we find ourselves dealing with quite a lively and completely different election campaign in 2010. Brown, Cameron and Clegg all look shattered after touring the country shaking hands, between making public gaffs trying to shore up the regions they hope to win.

Now however, in Daventry, traditionally regarded a safe conservative  seat, could this be about to change?

Unless I’m mistaken few people in the Daventry constituency have had more than fleeting contact with any of the candidates.  Maybe someone has phoned whilst I have been out and I missed the call – unlikely in this age of mobiles and call forwarding. I have seen leaflets hastily thrust through the door at the last minute and noticed Tory posters loyally popping up on the headlands of fields outside Daventry, but apart from this you could easily be forgiven not noticing the election taking place in our area.

At idaventry, we have received information from candidates by email and I searched their websites for pictures, nevertheless, the only people who seem serious about getting our attention are the organizers behind conservative candidate Chris Heaton-Harris, not leaving anything to chance and especially now.

Other candidates will have done their homework based on past results and a simple fact that since 1918, Daventry only ever elected a Conservative Member of Parliament. Even the Labour victories of 1997, remained Tory wins for Daventry, despite the 11% fall in their share of the vote. So that’s why they can be excused optimism in 2010 and we must assume other candidates have viewed these past results with equal amounts of pessimism.

After the 97 swing from Conservatives, the 2001 election did see their share of the vote increased by 2.6%. By the 2005 election; conservatives saw another positive swing of 3.6%, then three weeks ago, something happened. Coming out of the blue, or perhaps yellow, the Clegg factor arrived.

Nearly as fast as Susan Boyle became an international superstar, Clegg became a new household name and member of the big boys club in politics. From then on the 2010 election dynamics changed forever.

At idaventry, we looked at three sets of opinion polls published on the BBC’s website on 1^st May. Applying these predictions to Daventry, a new picture emerged which, even after taking account of changes to the Daventry constituency coming into effect this year, alters the odds for all three main candidates.

The conservatives who normally expect to poll half the votes, could see their share reduced to dangerous low levels, whilst both Labour and LibDem enter higher up the frame.

Remember these are our predictions based on three sets of national opinion polls. In the 2005 election, the Conservative result in Daventry was 1.2% lower than the national figure and the Labour result was lower by 2.7%. Liberal Democrat polled higher than the national did by the combined losses of both Labour and Tory (2.9%) a sign five years ago of what was to come. The combined vote of the other parties was 1% higher than national.

idaventry predicted results for 2010

Conservatives – 36%

Labour – 30%

Liberal – 28%

Other – 4.7%

* idaventry predictions for the voting share for Daventry in 2010 based on three national opinion polls published on 1^st May, 2010.

If these polls, published only 5 days before the 2010 election, are anywhere near correct then we are going to see a very much closer election result here in Daventry. What is amazing is that for the first time in many years both Labour and Liberal could be in with a real chance of winning. If by some miracle the Liberal Democrats for example, increased their voters by another 10% between now and May 6, then we would have a Liberal MP in Daventry for the first time in our history.

When Labour, Liberal and the other Daventry candidates were selected, not one of them in their right mind had expectation of winning. Just do the math based on past results. Labour’s candidate Paul Corazzo will have predicted how many votes he is likely to win based on winning about half the votes polled by Chris Heaton-Harris. In fact, the party officials at Labour head office, never expecting him to win, will have selected Paul on this basis. The same must apply to the Liberal Democrats who will have selected an appropriate candidate with little chance of him actually winning.

In the case of the Conservatives it’s the opposite argument. Chris Heaton-Harris has been given what was deemed to be a very safe seat. He is on the Conservative Party A-list and will almost certainly be invited to join David Cameron’s first cabinet should they win the general election.

Incidentally, Chris Heaton-Harris must be well acquainted with Nick Clegg, since both became MEP’s in 1998/1999. Clegg retired in 2006 and later on elected as a Westminster MP whilst Chris stayed as an MEP until 2009.

Personally I feel the other major parties; Labour and Lib Dem have given me a problem. Whilst welcoming the improved chances for all the other parties in Daventry, it is a concern that because expectations have been low, party bosses will not have fielded their best candidates available.

From their CV’s Paul Corazzo for Labour and Chris McGlynn for the Liberal Democrats look like honorable and energetic politicians, and the same goes for Alan Bennet-Spencer (English Democrats) Jim Broomfield (UKIP) and Steve Whiffen (Green Party) who will all work hard for Daventry.  But (there is always a but) are these good men the very best calibre representative we have to send to Westminster?

This question is aimed more at Labour and LibDem party officials since hand on heart – did you choose the very best people available to represent Daventry, when the expectations of them winning were very low, or did you reserve the best candidates for constituencies where you had a higher chance of winning?

My heart wants me to vote to narrow the gap between the conservatives by jumping on the LibDem bandwagon, making this more of a democratic competition. My head tells me that Daventry will be better served by a person with wide experience at an international level and the prospect of serving in the government……..It was not meant to be this hard!

How should council leaders respond to Daventry’s referendum?

In sporting terms, it was three goals to the NO vote and one goal for the YES vote.

Will this result have come as a surprise to council leaders, I am sure the answer is also a resounding NO. The problem being local referendums do favour the result most wanted by the people who call for the poll in the first place.

What will have perhaps come more of a surprise was 3,000 people turning out to vote. There must have been a real depth of feeling and even whilst debating the issues with several local people in Daventry, I was surprised just how passionately opposed to the scheme they are

Instinctively my first thought was it seemed irrational since the marina and canal are quite progressive and could eventually result in becoming a major attraction for Daventry town centre.  Therefore, why are so many people against it?

Perhaps the explanation is more complex than first thought. Just because they voted NO maybe this is NOT a vote not against sound ideas for developing Daventry, but against ideas proposed by these particular elected members – who have finally forfeited the voters trust.

So, maybe council leaders should be considering after this first local referendum – why people feel like this and do not support their otherwise ambitious and progressive ideas.

Maybe I can help them through the fog since it’s not that hard to find real tangible evidence why Daventry voters have real genuine concerns about their council leaders. Let’s face it if you can manage to lose a big chunk of the local tax revenue entrusted to you to pay for emptying the bins and paying for local policing, through a series of grossly inept investments, then compound the lunacy by re-engaging the same clowns who advised you to invest the money in the first place. Then naturally, the amount of respect the electorate will have for any future ambitious plans regardless how good they are – will be practically zero….

Author: David Raven editor idaventry.com

Why the new Water Space could be good for Daventry

By David Raven Editor of idaventry.com

Water always seems to have a strong attraction for humans hence the reason why our parks and open spaces are more often than not embellished with a natural or man-made pond, lake, river or canal. Imagine the scene on a warm summer’s afternoon families off for stroll around Daventry’s beautiful country park, wandering along the canal towpath.  Completing the outing with a coffee or meal whilst sitting outside a waterside café overlooking the new Marina close to the town centre. Maybe this is an unrealistic dream for many readers who have clearer visions of an underused unsupported watery waste peppered with abandoned shopping trolleys.

 Quite a few Daventry residents are here as a direct result of the large migration from London and Birmingham which took place in the 1960’s and 70’s. Before this Daventry was a quiet little town with a population of around 6,000 people. Amongst the small number of remaining original Daventry folk, quite a few of them would probably like the population to return to its original size however, we know this is not going to happen. Therefore, since we can’t put the clock back we have to view the future going forward. Our population will continue to grow and requirement for more leisure and cultural needs continue to expand.

 The idea for a canal and marina are not new to Daventry since as long ago as the 1830’s plans were made to connect Daventry to the Grand Union Canal when is was being built. Then came the railways and since Daventry’s success rested on being at the centre of a busy road network (ironically as it has become again today) canal transportation went out of fashion.

 Numerous other towns in Britain are already building or planning to build marinas linked to the canal network. Places like Newbury, Reading and Banbury all have waterways running through their commercial centre providing attractive and practical facilities. Most of these schemes include housing and commercial developments with additional leisure facilities, both Northampton and Milton Keynes have their own similar plans to Daventry.

 It goes without saying the success of this venture will be judged not on the building of the canal and marina but on the future management and ongoing support and maintenance. Yes it will end up a cesspit for shopping trolleys and bicycles if no money is allocated for future support services. If Daventry District Council just pocket the short-term revenue from the sale of land and buildings and without planning for the long-term.

 The problem with particularly older residents in Daventry and I include myself in this category, we can all too often see the reasons any new scheme may not work based on our long experience. A younger person doesn’t have the same doubts since they don’t know the reasons why it could fail – they haven’t got to that bit yet – and since they don’t know they may just go ahead and make it work!

David Raven has lived in Daventry town for over 30 years and is the Managing Editor of www.idaventry.com
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